SPORTS ADVISORS
(6) Michigan State (20-4, 12-8-1 ATS) at (19) Purdue (19-6, 10-11 ATS)
Two of the top three teams in the Big Ten get together for the first time this season, as Michigan State takes a three-game SU and ATS winning streak to Mackay Arena for a showdown with Purdue.
The Spartans have destroyed their last three opponents (Minnesota, Indiana and Michigan) by an average of 23 points per game while giving up 47, 47 and 42 points in the three victories – their three lowest point totals allowed this season. Most recently, Michigan State pounded Michigan 54-42 a week ago tonight, cashing as a four-point road chalk. Tom Izzo’s squad is on a 5-1 SU and ATS roll, with all five victories coming by 15 points or more. Additionally, it has won all six of its Big Ten roadies (5-0-1 ATS).
Purdue survived a grind-it-out tussle at Iowa on Saturday, winning 49-45 but coming up just short as a five-point road chalk. Although the Boilermakers were held to their second lowest point total of the season, they shot 46.5 percent from the field and held the Hawkeyes to just 36.2 percent, and they had a 29-23 rebounding edge. Purdue has followed up consecutive losses with two straight wins (1-1 ATS) and is 8-2 SU in its last 10 (6-4 ATS), allowing an average of just 57.8 ppg during this 10-game stretch.
Michigan State has a 1½-game lead over Illinois and a two-game edge on Purdue in the Big Ten standings with a 10-2 record (7-4-1 ATS), and its six conference road wins have been by an average of 11 ppg. Purdue is 8-4 in conference (6-6 ATS), and since opening league play with a four-point overtime home loss to Illinois, the Boilermakers are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run at Mackay Arena.
The home team has won four straight meetings in this rivalry (3-1 ATS) and is 7-1 SU in the last eight (5-3 ATS). However, Purdue has cashed in each of the last four series clashes, including both meetings last year – a 60-54 home win as a 1½-point home chalk and a 78-75 road setback as a 13-point underdog. Finally, the favorite has gotten the money in nine of the last 12 battles.
The Spartans are on ATS runs of 5-1 overall, 6-0-1 on the road, 4-1 against winning teams and 11-4 after holding their previous opponent to less than 50 points, but they’ve failed to cash in four of their last five on Tuesday. In addition to its 4-0 ATS run at home, Purdue is 28-12-1 ATS in its last 41 against Big Ten rivals, but the Boilermakers are 0-for-5 this season as a favorite of less than five points.
The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in this rivalry and 6-1 in the last seven clashes at Mackay Arena. Additionally, the under is on streaks of 12-2 for Michigan State on Tuesday, 6-2 for Michigan State versus winning teams, 4-1 for the Boilermakers overall and 5-2 for the Boilermakers at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Maryland (16-8, 9-7-2 ATS) at (13) Clemson (20-4, 9-9-1 ATS)
Two days after suffering an embarrassing loss at last-place Virginia, Clemson goes back to work when it hosts ACC rival Maryland, which is looking for a marquee win to enhance its NCAA Tournament resume.
The Tigers took the court as an eight-point road favorite Sunday in Charlottesville, Va., but departed with an 85-81 overtime loss. Since starting the season with 16 consecutive wins, Clemson has split its last eight contests both SU and ATS, with the winner covering the spread in each game. Much of the blame for the Tigers’ struggles has been defense, as they’ve surrendered 80.5 ppg in their four losses, compared with 63.2 ppg in their 20 victories.
Maryland has won two in row and three of its last four (3-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 83-73 rout of Virginia Tech, cashing as a 3½-point home favorite. The Terps’ recent surge comes on the heels of a 1-4 slump (2-3 ATS), all in conference play.
Clemson is in a four-way tie for third place in the ACC at 6-4 (5-4-1 ATS), including 3-2 at home (2-2-1 ATS). Maryland is one game back at 5-5 SU and ATS, including 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS on the highway.
The Tigers are on a 5-2 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 73-70 road win as a one-point favorite in last year’s lone meeting. The winner has covered the spread in each of the last 10 series battles, and the road team and the underdog have both cashed in four of the last six.
The Terps are on pointspread surges of 4-2 on the road, 5-1-1 after a SU victory and 5-2 against winning teams, but they’re 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight after a non-cover. Clemson is 4-2 ATS in its last six overall and 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 at home versus teams with a losing road record.
The over is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head matchups between these schools and is on further runs of 5-2-1 for Maryland overall (all in the ACC), 4-1 for Maryland after a spread-cover, 4-1 for Maryland against winning teams and 6-1 for Clemson against winning teams. On the flip side, the under is 10-5 in the Terps’ last 15 roadies and 8-0 in the Tigers’ last eight at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
San Antonio (35-16, 25-24-2 ATS) at New York (21-31, 30-22 ATS)
After a five-day layoff for the All-Star break, the Spurs resume their eight-game road trip at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks, who come out of the break looking to put the skids on a six-game losing streak.
San Antonio is 3-2 (3-1-1 ATS) through the first five games on its three-week journey, but after back-to-back wins at the Celtics (105-99) and Nets (108-83), it fell 91-89 at Toronto on Wednesday as a 6 ½-point chalk. That non-cover snapped a 6-0-1 ATS run by the Spurs (5-0-1 ATS on the road).
The Knicks have also been idle since Wednesday, when they concluded an ugly three-game West Coast road trip with a 128-124 loss at the Clippers, cashing as a 5½-point road underdog. New York is putting up 113 points per game during its six-game slide (3-3 ATS), but has allowed a whopping 120.1 ppg. Mike D’Antoni’s squad has hit triple digits in 13 straight games, but given up 104 or more in 10 of the last 12, including eight in a row.
The Spurs have won seven straight meetings against the Knicks, and they’re 9-1 in the last 10 battles. However, since a 5-1 ATS run by San Antonio, New York has covered three of the last four. The one exception came on Nov. 11, when the Spurs rolled to a 92-80 home win as a 4½-point chalk. The favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 head-to-head battles, and San Antonio is 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in its last five trips to the Garden.
Although the Knicks have alternated spread-covers in their last seven outings, they’re 10-3 ATS in their last 13, including 6-2 ATS at home and 7-3 ATS as an underdog. Additionally, New York is on ATS surges of 6-2 against the Western Conference, 4-1 against the Southwest Division, 6-2 versus winning teams, 5-2 after a SU defeat and 4-0 after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
In addition to their ATS runs of 6-1-1 overall and 5-1-1 on the road, the Spurs are on pointspread streaks of 4-0 on Tuesday, 4-1 after a SU loss and 23-11 when playing on three or more days’ rest. However, they’re 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 contests against teams from the Atlantic Division.
For San Antonio, the over is on runs of 7-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 5-1-1 on Tuesday, 5-1 against winning teams and 5-2 versus the Atlantic Division. New York is riding “over” streaks of 8-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 against the Western Conference, 5-0 against the Southwest Division and 6-0 when playing after three or more days off. Lastly, five of the last seven Knicks-Spurs clashes have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Atlanta (31-21, 28-24 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (42-10, 27-25 ATS)
Fresh off earning a share of the MVP trophy in Sunday’s All-Star game, Kobe Bryant returns to action when he leads the Lakers against the improved Hawks at Staples Center.
Los Angeles had a seven-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s 113-109 loss at Utah as a one-point road favorite, the team’s second straight non-cover after a 6-0 ATS surge. Phil Jackson’s team has scored at least 100 points in nine straight games and 22 of the last 23, the only exception being a 99-point effort in a blowout win over San Antonio. Furthermore, the Lakers have scored in triple digits in 45 of 52 games this season, averaging 108.7 ppg overall.
Atlanta went into the All-Star break after consecutive wins and covers over the Wizards (111-90 as a nine-point home favorite last Tuesday) and Pistons (99-95 as a 3½-point road underdog Wednesday). The Hawks have won and covered four of their last five and five of their last seven, and they’re on a 3-0 SU and ATS run on the highway.
These teams split their season series last year, with the Hawks prevailing 98-95 as a 3½-point home underdog and Los Angeles returning the favor with a 122-93 blowout victory as an 11-point home chalk. The host is 7-3 SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Lakers are also 7-3 SU and ATS during this stretch. That includes a 4-1 SU and ATS when hosting the Hawks in Los Angeles, with those four home victories coming by margins of 29, 11, 16 and 46 points.
The SU winner is 10-1 ATS in the Lakers’ last 11 games, 12-0 ATS in the Hawks’ last 12 and 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry.
Atlanta is on pointspread upticks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on Tuesday, 5-2 on three or more days of rest, 20-8 as an underdog (17-6 this season) and 11-4 as a road pup. However, the Hawks have failed to cash in five of their last seven against winning teams.
Los Angeles carries positive ATS trends of 6-2 overall, 4-0 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 as a favorite, 6-0 when laying between five and 10½ points, 4-1 after a non-cover and 4-1 when playing on three or more days’ rest. On the downside, the Lakers are in pointspread ruts of 2-6 on Tuesday, 3-9 after a SU loss and 1-8 versus the Southeast Division.
The over is 6-2 in the last eight Hawks-Lakers battles, including 4-0 in the last four meetings at Staples Center. Also, the Lakers are on “over” streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-1 as a favorite, 9-2 on Tuesday, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 versus the Southeast Division. Finally, Atlanta is on “over” surges of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-0 after a victory, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 when playing on three or more days’ rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
